← Happyland Store Championship
Water GenbuTier 2
at Happyland Store Championship
Pilot Skill ↓ low
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 19.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.1% | +3.0 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 9.7% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.5% | +7.3 |
| Fire Aggro | 6.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 6.5% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 49.4% | -0.5 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 6.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 6.5% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 31.4% | -17.9 |
| Water Aetherwing | 6.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.9% | +14.2 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 6.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Byakko | 3.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.0% | +15.9 |
| Fire Suited | 3.2% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 63.2% | +12.7 |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 3.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.9% | +6.2 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 59.1% | +8.7 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 4 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 26 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 26 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Song of Frost | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Primordial Ritual | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cloak of Stillwater | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Revitalizing Cleanse | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Unbroken Mustang | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Resonating Fugue | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Liminal Guide | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reckoning's Wake | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Languid Toadtroll | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Young Beastbonder | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Carpsong Coda | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Excalibur, Cleansing Light | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Beastbond Boots | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Clockwork Musicbox | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Throne-Keeper Bullfrog | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Strategem of Myriad Ice | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tabula of Salvage | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| The Looking Glass | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Water Barrier | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tideholder Claymore | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Refracting Missile | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Death Essence Amulet | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |